Russia-Ukraine War: My Opinion As An Indian
The Russia-Ukraine Conflict: Where it is Going and How it Will Affect The World and India in The Long Run.
The whole world has an opinion on the Russia-Ukraine conflict and every country has a side but in this article I’m gonna write about as an Indian how I think and see this conflict.
It looked like the whole world chose their team after the starting of Russia-Ukraine conflict, all the western countries or should I say it directly that US and its vassal states were obviously on Ukraine's side and Russia was backed by China and all other countries including India took a neutral approach but before starting and during of this conflict there were drastic changes observed and as an Indian and an avid geopolitics observer I will put my perspective on this conflict.
I was tracking this conflict 7 months before its starting, not very extensively but I had an eye on it. It grabbed my attention when in June 2021 Putin called back the troops who were deployed on Ukrainian border and I was keeping eye on this conflict because Western special forces were training Ukrainian soldiers and in Crimea there is already a fight took place between Russian and Ukrainian troops so it was an interesting development for me. Those who don't know about this conflict let me give you brief history.
The History
This small dam type structure is a canal coming out Ukraine's biggest river “Dnipro River” which is in Crimea which Putin annexed in Russia in 2014. Crimea was part of Ukraine till 2014. When Russia captured Crimea so Ukraine blocked this canal with sandbag and it is the main source of water in Crimea and this resulted in drought, Russia tried to compensate it but failed so they had to move towards war which is one of the prime reason of Russian intervention of Ukraine other than Ukraine's leaning towards west resulting western troops coming very close to Russia border and crimes on Russian speaking population in Donbass region which Russia capture recently are some of the more reasons.
By winters alot of TikTok videos were started coming on twitter by Russian and OSINT handles in which Russians were again moving their troops on Ukrainian border, I exactly don't know the reason behind troop movement but most probably some negotiation failure might be the reason but this time the mobilization was on massive level because this time armored trucks, tanks and SAMs were spotted moving and after few days these videos become very frequent so I started tracking them more. Around December videos of massive field hospitals near Russia-Ukraine border started coming out, you always setup field hospitals during a big conflict and then Russia suddenly declared an exercise with Belarus after exercise started European nations started stocking weapons which will be sent to Ukraine but US didn't let that happen and whoever knows US, this is a big sign for them and until then alot of researchers of reputed research institute were claiming that it is just a showbiz by Russia nothing will happen and Russian intervention started in Ukraine just 1 month after the Russia-Belarus military exercises on Feb 24,2022.
Indian Perspective and the Future of the World
It is the situation like this give birth to a new world order or in simple language a new world leader. Due to pandemic the whole world's economy was in negative and then multiple conflicts started on multiple front in a single time India-China, China-Taiwan, Russia-Ukraine, Azerbaijan-Armenia and Greece-Turkey but the importance of Russia Ukraine conflict is important because it threaten US leadership and world's most powerful military alliance NATO's existence and how this is happening understand this also.
One of the primary reason of US being a world leader is the worldwide supremacy of the United States dollar and Russia Ukraine conflict challenged this supremacy. US dollar is a significantly used by any country to import/export oil and that is why it is also called “Petrodollar” and on an average around $8 billion dollar worth of oil gets consumed in the world daily and the every day's trade of billions of dollars make the dollar a very strong currency which ultimately makes the US stronger because US prints the dollar and this is one of the most basic reason for US supremacy. The thing to be noted that Pound has more value than dollar, but dollar is stronger because this is the game of circulation. Now how this conflict started affecting dollar have a look.
From before this conflict we were seeing continuous fall of US position as world leader their deteriorating terms in Middle East were opening an opportunity for India because is the most important character in Middle east's policy making but UAE and Saudis were moving away from US which got clear when a rift was seen in UAE and US relations. UAE suspended a big weapon deal from US on 14th December 2021 which was around of $23 billion and the reason was China because US was trying to save its technology and Chinese have quite influence in UAE and they had the history of stealing US technology that's why US demanded for unreasonable restrictions to safeguard its technology so UAE cancelled the deal and this could be the turning point for India's whole approach in this conflict. Now you might be asking how India came into this picture, let me explain Geopolitics is a complex and long lasting game. After US deal got cancelled UAE traded more with Chinese they also got jets from China in Feb 2020 which was taken pretty seriously and personally by US Military industrial complex and on 5th March 2022 UAE was from put on FATF's grey list by US in the same list of Pakistan and US already spoiled the sport in middle east till now then UAE and Saudi declined the calls with US President Joe Biden on 8th March 2022 “Please mind the dates and I am telling all this in a synchronised order” Biden knew the oil prices who are already high due to Russia-Ukraine crisis will turn into civil unrest in Europe and North America till winters that's why they were calling UAE and Saudis to meet their oil demands now it's India's entry time, on 15th March Saudi Arabia agree to trade oil in Yuan, Yuan is a chinese currency and for Saudi Arabia it can be said that there can be only two big influence to take this decision either US say this which they will never do because they will always wanted to trade the oil in dollars or India said this to Saudis but it cannot make sense on 15th March because India and China were locked in a standoff on LAC or India-China border and on 11th March, 15th corps commander meeting was concluded between Indian Army and PLA but on 16th March it became clear that it is indeed done by India when India considered Yuan as secondary currency while finalizing Rupee-Rubble trade with Russia by this it got clear that India and China might be fighting in front but playing together behind the doors and after India's acceptance of Yuan, Belarus also started trading in Yuan.
On 20th March UAE welcome US's biggest enemy in Middle East President of Syria, Bashar al-Assad which was the direct message towards US that things are way bad than they think. In this whole chain of event Yuan was presented as an alternative of US dollar and that's how a process of making a new world order begun or you can say attempt and on 15th October all major oil producing countries or OPEC announced that they will make a big cut in oil production which will increase the price of oil in global market and supply will be shorten and this will lead to more profit to OPEC but this also has one more factor, this will give a big impact to the already declining growth of western countries and in return US threatened Saudi Arabia after this decision.
now I write earlier that this conflict can break NATO, its direct impact can be seen in the France, Italy and other small NATO countries where we can see big protests getting erupted against NATO because winters are coming and Europe cannot survive this winters without Russian gas that's why separating from NATO will leads to deals with Russia and this lack of gas and oil will eventually push the western economies towards collapse and this collapse will give chance to India, China and Asian countries to dominate the world market, this is not happening for the first time this is exactly how United States become the world leader by capitalising such things and India is placing itself for the new world order with secured energy options, multiple currency to buy energy and fastest growing economy in the world. India has so far placed itself against the western media's questions which were asked to corner India either it was India's stand on Russia Ukraine conflict or Dr. Jaishankar's straight reply on doctored human rights reports. India gave befitting reply (Muh tod jawab) to US on Indian purchases of oil from Russia. US raised question of S-400 purchase in June 2022, India replied that India will do what will be in the national interest of India and this series of befitting reply and strict adherence to national interest was sustained not only in US but also in Europe.
Indian External Affairs Ministry is continuously defending and announcing Indian interests. From the start till here I have seen Indian diplomacy evolving drastically. I am seeing how India is using the opportunities given by this conflict like a true world power, in the current time of conflict India has placed itself in the world that now nobody can ignore India and in every major world event an Indian perspective will always be required, this conflict might be happening thousands of kilometres away from India but India is playing a major role in it but there are some more interesting things happening around us which are largely getting ignored right now.
If you look at the recent reports then Japan and South Korea agreed to invest in Pakistan and somedays ago US package of F-16 to Pakistan were objected by India. It is possible that to teach India a lesson US making Japan and South Korea to invest in Pakistan, Japan and South Korea largely remains under the control of US. How? that will require another article. So by investing in Pakistan if there can be a conflict between India and Pakistan the India's growth can either become slower and if things gets escalated it can vanish due to a big conflict. I know these are weird claims but we should not ignore any possibility, this Russia Ukraine conflict will change alot of things in the world and if I saw this conflict coming then I am 100% sure that top leadership must have taken alot of steps many months before this but with just one motto : Indian interest should be aligned and taken care of, untill unless nothing will move.
Thank You for reading this article. Follow me on Instagram: purvam_tomar & for more knowledge read my other articles.
- Poorvam Tomar.
Jai Hind 🇮🇳